With counting continuing in a handful of Senate races and 68 House contests yet to be declared, Democrats were on course for a larger congressional majority than many had anticipated, according to reporting on Thursday. The headline result is already certain: Democrats have won control of both the Senate and the House, gaining at least 30 seats in the lower chamber and flipping seven Senate seats. But the final size of the majority, and the political meaning of it, will not be known until the last ballots are counted, and that process will take days in some states.
Why it matters
The Senate picture is the clearer of the two. Democrats hold at least 54 seats, with Alaska and Mississippi still uncalled, and the majority could grow to 56 if both remaining races break their way. Alaska may not be called for more than a week because of ranked choice tabulation, while the Mississippi timeline remained unclear on Wednesday. Those two races matter because the margin determines how much room Democratic leaders have to lose votes on difficult bills, and how strong a hand they hold in negotiations with the White House.
The House picture is more complex, because 68 contests is a large number, and because the undeclared seats include both Democratic and Republican leads. A majority built on a large margin gives the Speaker more freedom to lose votes from the party wings, while a narrow majority forces discipline on every bill. Hakeem Jeffries, on track to become the first Black speaker, will need to know the exact size of his majority before he can plan the legislative calendar, and that knowledge will not arrive until the counting is complete.
What happens next
The delay is normal, and it should not be treated as a problem. American elections are counted state by state, county by county, and the rules for mail ballots, provisional ballots and recounts differ across the country. A close race can turn on a small number of ballots, and the responsible course is to wait for the count rather than to declare a result that the ballots have not yet produced. The impatience of a news cycle is not a reason to rush a count that determines who governs.
For voters, the practical consequence is a period of uncertainty that will resolve itself in stages. The new Congress will be seated in January, and by then the majority will be known, the leadership will be chosen, and the agenda will be set. Until then, the counting continues, and the most useful thing anyone can do is to let it continue without claiming a result that has not yet been counted.
